The 49ers were getting pressure with 4 against slow developing offensive plays. So we have a blowout and a blooper bowl, and that leaves us with one relevant competitive game to see us through the afternoon -- Bengals-Steelers. Next third-and-10, though, pressure finally gets to Brady and he basically throws the ball away to set up a punt. NCAA Conference Championship - The big news we've expected for a while is now official, as college football's FBS level is going to a 12-team playoff beginning with the 2024 season. Things got a little bogged down there, but back-to-back Dolphins penalties kept Cleveland alive, and Harrison Bryant was able to find the end zone to open the scoring. A touchdown ices the game for Detroit; a field goal makes it a 15-point lead and leaves New York a glimmer of hope. It didn't look as bad as the Trey Lance injury, in case you're making starting 49er QB injury comparisons! Chark for a big 41-yard gain, and then finds St. Brown in the end zone to extend the Lions lead to 14-3. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Cowboys Try to End Vikings Win Streak, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Tony Pollard stays hot to give the Cowboys the lead @Tp__5, : #DALvsGB on FOX When most teams have a throwback, they wear itconstantly. Unheard of. Overtime goes like this: a one-yard stuff off Josh Jacobs, and then Derek Carr hitting Foster Moreau and Davante Adams on back-to-back 30+ yard shots. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/FnZxSAlQXS pic.twitter.com/ALT9DRuaOp. : #MINvsBUF on FOX Join in on the conversation -- either in the comment section in this article, on Twitter by tagging@FBOutsidersor@BryKno, or on our brand newDiscord server, where some of your favorite writers will be hanging out and reacting live. We're at halftime in Germany, and the Seahawks' talent seems to have been held up in customs. They very much arenot, however, as Tua's touchdown to Hill likely ends the competitive portion of this one. TroublesomeCadaver, via the FO Discord:Josh Allen, QB sneak with 2 pushers? The German football league (formerly called the American-Football-Bundesliga and now called, uh, the German Football League)is the best on the continent, with theSchwbisch Hall Unicorns having won the last two CEFL Bowls. So not only are the Browns playing for their life, but they're also in play to throw a major monkey wrench into the playoff picture for teams ahead of them. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/0gauSAokuv pic.twitter.com/jfJ7TKTQoS. It's 7-7, as the ending hour comes crashing down. We watch the games that we, as fans, are interested in watching, so your favorite team's game might not be covered to your fullest desires or even at all. : "no one could've ever expected the Eagles to be this good! Green touchdown four plays later. Carl Yedor: One play after Kansas City narrowly misses a pick where an Allen pass just clears the reach of a diving defender, the Chiefs finally get their hands on the interception that he has been trying to throw all night. The Bucs recover and return it to the Green Bay 8, setting up a first-and-goal. Ja'Marr Chase, who will be back for this one, fired back multiple times as well, and everyone not named Mahomes or Burrow seems to be willing to scrap this one up. There's a lot of truth to it. It's a quiet day for the big two receivers -- Tyreek Hill has 22 yards, Waddle has 36. Remember when we it looked, briefly, like Davis Mills might be an answer in Houston? In reply to You missed his subtraction by jonsilver. My goodness. Rivers McCown: Sean Murphy-Holding picked a hell of a game to be in the big spot for some officiating non-calls. But the other story is Philadelphia's offense, as they've managed 21 points in the first half. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/HIkZtH0OMm pic.twitter.com/XbIv4vGD9G. But man, they definitely didnt take it out of Whites hands, and even with the loss, I think that he gave a good enough performance to show that last week wasnt a fluke. Tampa was 7 - 9 last year. They had a decent two-minute drive to get a touchdown at the end of the half, and even that took 13 plays to get 75 yards. If Mahomes is making the throws - the WRs end up correcting at some point. If you discount garbage time, or worse yet, throw it in the garbage, things like this will be missed. Watson now has four catches for 107 yards and three touchdowns as the Packers have erased a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. It's a maladaptive and childish impulse, but I can't deny that it's there. Rams will fall to last place in the NFC West, and if Kupp is seriously hurt, they may not win another game until he returns. Now in the S.B. Just for the record, there have been 12 playoff games since 1991 where a team converted at least 11 third downs. Mahomes just makes everyone so much better. In reply to How bad are the Raiders? Not claiming that Tampa cheats better. Make it three for Christian Watson, as he just outruns the Cowboys defense on the slant! Vince Verhei:Well, lost in all that lunacy is that this has probably been Wilsons best day for Denver 13-of-15 for 147 yards. I don't know if it's just a light that's come on or the restructuring of the Bears' offense to take advantage of his mobility or what, but Fields and the Bears look beyond competent now. That'd be cool! He more or less matched the primes of some of the greatest in the game but also has unparalleled longevity. The Giants, meanwhile, have the worst DVOA of any team currently in playoff position at -5.0%. JUSTIN JEFFERSON CATCH OF THE CENTURY. A potential pyrrhic victory here. : #GBvsCHI on FOX Analytically speaking, that's bad, as I'm sure McCarthy could vouch for. And then Pittsburgh finally got the offense going, and by "offense going" I mean "one long pass to Pat Freiermuth". I think this win means a lot even if the Bucs get pounded. It's really too bad that we won't get to see what would have been an all-time weather game, but the safety of the community does come first, as well it should. Green Bay is not going down without a fight! The weather impacts the Week 11 NFL schedule. On their first drive after halftime, Taylor Heinicke, uh, doesn't look great. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/bBQuxnO25T pic.twitter.com/yMZ8iWXAUZ. Chris Godwin is going to get paid this off season pic.twitter.com/5yrXGXSRKx, National Football Post (@FootballPost) January 24, 2021. We've gone to OT here; the Giant start but went backwards. ", I would love to agree with this, but the very thread your on started with someone jumping all over the initial comment that said, "Brady is the GOAT, but you can be the GOAT and be the luckiest player in history. Landry comes down with the touchdown in the end zone, and the Saints regain the lead 17-14. And somehow, despite the different uniform and coaching staff, this voodoo continues. Jalen Virgil. No huge surprises from the early morning inactives. Nice little hesitation route by @JJettas2 , : #NYJvsMIN on CBS The 2011-vintageAndy Reid probably loses a few of those games. 54-YARD TD! Calculating these were a little bit complicated, as the Eagles, Vikings and Giants still play each other three more times so there are three guaranteed wins (or six half-wins, if you want to be technical) floating out there to be dealt with, but we got there in the end. Colts blitz and get an unblocked rusher and flush Hurts out of bounds for a 6 yard loss. They did, today, and the Bills will lose by two touchdowns even with the muffed punt, onside kick recovery, and getting the last legitimate possession of the first half. : #DETvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/Cos6v0yPIC, Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 13, 2022. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/IaVHvq433O pic.twitter.com/wfRkUCBX7E. In reply to I don't see the "negative" by Eddo. To say otherwise is a bit silly. Aaron Schatz: Fantastic play call on second-and-11 with a screen to Rob Gronkowski, taking advantage of the fact that Gronk has been blocking most of the game. We have a TIE! 60 yards? 4:49 left in this one. Bryan Knowles: Travis Kelce's 11th reception of the day makes this a 31-15 Chiefs lead, and I think that's all she wrote. FG on 4th and goal at the 6 is a mistake? At best you can only expect them to blindly, mechanically follow them. Big names out this week include Browns TE David Njoku, Broncos WR KJ Hamler, Lions WR Josh Reynolds, Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman, and Steelers DBs Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ahkello Witherspoon. The twist this week is that it's theiropponentswho are floundering after some early success. Sigh. Chiefs are still up by two scores. So, so far, chalk this up to gunslinger McCoy outdueling his opponent. : #DALvsMIN on CBS While it was certainly very funny to draft "WR: A. Rodgers", it's about time to cut him. This is why you set the rules before the game and then enforce them consistently once the game starts, for the entire game. That does lead me to think Kelce may be a bit less of a threat than usual just because those two are fast and fluid enough to at least cover him partway down the field, but at some point he slips past them and you have to hope the secondary can handle it (they probably can't). Especially when defenses are telegraphing exactly what they are going to do because of how terrified they are. I believe GB had much more offensive talent(WR/TE; Offensive line) and should have won this game. I also knew people at the time who remained loyal fans of the team (one of them even said, "I can't wait for the day when they raise the Lombardi while wearing their ridiculous orange uniforms with theirfruity pirate logos!"). Rule of cool saves the day; Eagles take a 14-7 lead. Its time to accept that this is going to be a shootout. Current theory - they heard they were playing Saturday, and got thrown off when they looked at the schedule. Elsewhere, Jimmy Garoppolo has been carted to the locker room, which seems less than ideal. In two weeks. Bradshaw902, and Montana1,292. I need to cool down before I say anything else. CCNA 1 v5.0.2 + v5.1 + v6.0 Chapter 7 Exam Answers 2019 2020 100% Updated Full Questions latest 2017 - 2018 Introduction to Networks. UPDATE: I have been working on this all day and realized I got this wrong. The rule specifically says that if you're blocking which is initiated within 1 yard, and you stop after you lose contact, it's fine. Fundamentally it's still a "speed, space and balance" system (to quote Belichick on Reid - and note 'balance' here is run/pass balance, but not in the silly NFL definition) - you manipulate linebackers/safeties to create open space for playmakers to attack in the middle of the field. I was 13 when the Argos won the '83 Grey Cup, their first in 31 years. All it would take is a win over the Jets and a Jacksonville win over Detroit. Having 1st and 10 at your own6 is worth -1 points. Grab some hot chocolate and watch with us! They take the opening drive 75 yards in 11 plays, with Joe Burrow rushing into the end zone to open the scoring. What WOULD happen if you promoted an assisstant quarterbacks coach to primary playcaller? Fun times in Denver! a lot of marinos numbers are in the comments section of it. (Answer: UDFA from Appalachian State, making his NFL debut today.) Cowboys now lead 10-3, late in the first. That's worth covering! After the Brady Pass, the Seahawks marched down the field, but Geno Smith fumbled on a confused draw/pass/something. Also: Bobby Wagner did this. Cornerback depth is not a Green Bay strength. We have no intention of adding new authors solely to cover every game on a given Sunday, nor will we watch a different game from the ones that we're personally interested in watching just to ensure that Audibles covers every game. The Saints all-blacks aren't the worst look in the world, but they do look so much better with gold, and especially the old gold. The one asterisk is for the three-way tie at nine wins. Can't win them all, I guess. The second half has been mostly quiet for both teams -- three punts and a Bears field goal is all to write home about -- but a big pass interference on Chicago moved Green Bay just outside the red zone. Washington is currently comfortably ahead of Houston, but an Indianapolis team most had left for dead is now up 10-3 on the Eagles at halftime. With Seattle having basically no running backs, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf had 17 catches, with both of them having 120+ yards. ), their SRS was 12.75. The two-point conversion is stuffed, and the Bills settle for a 22-10 lead. For the record, I'd vote to keep TCU as the fourth seed, but this is a year where four feels like the wrong number of teams no matter how you slice it. That actually gives you an idea for the enormity of the task. Since a TD is worth 6.94 points, going for it gives you (.4 x 6.94) -.3 +(.6 x 1)= 3.08 expected points. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/CMzpA9q8ut pic.twitter.com/5qjavdnQW8. Best play in football always has been, and always WILL be, the flea flicker. Signs of life for Los Angeles, and Seattle is in trouble. That's a 28-10 lead for the Eagles, and this one seems done and dusted. First career touchdown for @ConnorHeyward1! I had a psych professor in college who felt the same way about someone being "a softie" or "kindhearted" or "reliable" deep down. Dan had 10 Negative value PO games and 2 others in the single digits, but that is the extent of my notes. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/P31SxnTZpJ pic.twitter.com/xiYc5aHzfF. 7-3, Lions. Putting the Jets in a position to win against good opponents is something Zach Wilson rarely did, and right now I think hes shown enough to hold the job for this season. My gut is telling me no, though I can sympathize with being frustrated that the correct call was not made originally. KC already beat that defense once. Vince Verhei: Bucs get yet another third-down conversion, this one a sweet play-fake on third-and-2 that lets Godwin slip into the flat virtually uncovered for a 19-yard gain. Some of the diversity has been forced by the Jaguars' apparent plan to injure every Chiefs receiver, with both Valdes-Scantling and Smith-Schuster leaving the game, but Mahomes hasn't missed a tick. Audibles Sunday NFL Liveblog: Cowboys Try to End Vikings Win Streak November 20, 1:00 am ET 44 Cowboys RB Tony Pollard Photo: USA Today Sports Images NFL Week 11 - Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season was more than a little bit memorable -- fantastic games, huge upsets, chaos throughout the playoff race. Nice to have Matthew Stafford back, isn't it, Los Angeles? NFL Week 13 - Last week, we were scrambling around trying to find a game to highlight -- a paltry schedule, drained by Thanksgiving, leaving us with some congealed leftovers in terms of matchups. No defense in the second half of this one, apparently! In reply to Vikings/Bills looked like a by Pat, (to be clear this wasn't me saying the game's over, just that seeing multiple brain fart plays by Cousins practically in a row was very familiar). Because its the Raiders is part of the answer, but more specifically, the Raiders (who ordinarily never blitz) are blitzing Wilson like crazy. Aaron Schatz, Vince Verhei, and Bryan Knowles are here to share some of the most surprising, mind-boggling, and outright embarrassing. First career TD for Trenton Irwin @trenton_4, : #CINvsPIT on CBS: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/4yWkrypYYE pic.twitter.com/7n4jIVpKK8. Combined with the terrible sack previously, he's having a rough time. Special teams are playing a big role. DeeJay Dallas limping off the field at halftime. A.J. And now for taking the field vs taking Tom Brady. Brock Purdy is the backup. In reply to Speaking of mistakes by ThanksBOB. And now the Seahawks climb back on top, 27-23, with 36 seconds left. 24-20, Bengals. Feels like the team that makes fewer mistakes in the second half will win, and that feels like a big edge for Mike Vrabel over Nathaniel Hackett. Josh Allen is playing, in case there was any doubt. Bowles kept blitzing Rodgers and Rodgers normally eviscerates the blitz. As for Denver, their win in London two weeks ago kept their season on life support. Its a penalty from the spot of the foul, so its still third-and-long. For a coach who was often willing to concede the run and shorter pass plays so they could stay in dime and not get burned over the top they got burned over the top in back-breaking fashion at the end of the first half. The Raiders are playing in a game where a team has blown a double-digit lead, because of course they are. In reply to Eagles go for it on 4th and by Ben. I will guessthat if you randomly added 10 DVOA percentage points to every Brady team and subtracted 5 DVOA points from every Brady playoff opponent, he should still not make 10 Super Bowls. Theyre just the Giants if the coin had come up heads an extra time or two. Yup, no worries, this is going to happen and there's no reason to assume otherwise; why would you assume otherwise? 41-yard TD against his former team! Mahomes is great, but my godKelce and Hill are just too much. A.J. They get a heck of a matchup, too, considering the dregs London has had to deal with for years. That means he needs 8 in the next 15 years. We finally have a touchdown in Baltimore! Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The Colts moved the ball to the fifty. On fourth down he had Randall Cobb open in the end zone, but threw the ball a yard too far. Second quarter ends with the Chiefs having a second-and-2 in the red zone. The best quarterback of the 2010s versus the leader in the clubhouse for best quarterback of the 2020s. . Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Amazing, amazing career, but the narrative today ought to be about Todd Bowles and the Tampa Bay defense not winnersauce. And while one was definitely the most prolific this year (and last year), it does seem like 3 or 4 more were out in full force the past month or so. The Texans' loss knocked them out, but that's not all. In reply to Apparently the Sam Ehlinger by Ben, No no, the Colts definitely weren't tanking or embroiled in some weird power struggle, The Simple Math Behind the Colts Decision to Turn to Sam Ehlinger, In reply to we'll always have this baffling think piece by JoelBarlow. When will I learn. Some are obviously much more influential (spot challenges on fourth down, receivers getting both feet down in bounds on third down, etc.) What a class already. Why did Las Vegas pick today of all days to get hyper aggressive? And the announcers are PRAISING Nathaniel Hackett for that! Two of them should have been caught by Davante Adams for touchdowns, but the first one he dropped, and the second the throw was late and he couldn't get down in bounds. the study. Josh Allen stampeding for the first down! Week 13 is afeast. : #DETvsCHI on FOX Also, lets not write the headlines early, this win wont mean a great deal if they end up getting pounded by the Chiefs. The Bears need one of the Vikings, Commanders, Giants or Eagles to win. Perhaps not trying to run it in late. Hey, the Raiders decided to run the "walkoff Josh Jacobs touchdown" play! #BillsMafiapic.twitter.com/XhzQfkjVoV. 28 comments, Last at 06 Dec 2022, 12:10pm. There's still time left in both games still going, but I highly doubt we'll see anyone change spots. @AaronRodgers12 @MVS__11#NFLPlayoffs #GoPackGo, : #TBvsGB on FOX Brady, Evans, Godwin, Brown, and Gronk is crazy, and throw in Cameron Brate as a solid pass-catcher and Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson as younger players who have shown a lot and that's a heck of an offense, but Tyreek Hill is basically a Madden cheat code in a red jersey, and Kelce's just such a solid target. Football Outsiders Almanac 2015: The Essential Guide to the 2015 NFL and College Football Seasons: Schatz, Aaron, Fahey, Cian, Gower, Tom, Healy, Andrew, Kacsmar, Scott, McCown, Rivers, Peltier, Chad, Price, Christopher, Tanier, Mike, Verhei, Vincent: 9781515363088: Books - Amazon Books Sports & Outdoors Football (American) Buy new: $17.96 Vince Verhei:Rams get a sack to put Arizona in third-and-17, but Rondale Moore gets a gain of 14 to make fourth down realistic, then a gain of 26 on fourth-and-3. An extra loss or two in some critical years very likely would have knocked NE out of a bye or made them go on the road for the AFCCG. I suppose we should start with the AFC Championship rematch, with the Bengals hosting the Chiefs as they begin their brutal end-of-season schedule. The Outsiders has the reputation of being the first book for young adults that addressed issues. I think it's safe to say the Chiefs have cleaned things up after a shaky start, yes? Bu the Bears have become the first team to be eliminated from a playoff seed, as they can no longer win home field advantage in the NFC. Big gain for Kendall Hinton! As Aaron said, it wasn't big plays that brought Green Bay out, which surprises me -- now both Buccaneers safeties are out, with Jordan Whitehead headed for the locker room, so I was assuming the Packers would test the Bucs deep. In reply to As I understand it the team by Cythammer. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. So, Najee Harris gets knocked out, lays flat on the ground, gets up and it's ok? I feel like the Bills need to try to score 40 points. I think I would. Elsewhere, the Saints look for a win against the Steelers to stay in what is a very sloppy NFC South race. "Except for" is basically having it both ways. Tony Pollard: six targets, six catches, 109 yards and two touchdowns. Vince Verhei: OK, THAT interception is 100% on Brady. Jerks. -- the worst 9-2 team in DVOA history. Find a game where you could criticize how long a late-game drive lasted, or not having timeouts at the end. Time to do some more high knees, Russell. Payton Turner made the stop for New Orleans, but then he had to be carted off the field. Thanks, Vince. When they can run the ball the offense is OK. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/Vz8D2Cm19r pic.twitter.com/qcbmnkQ9pY. Super bad luck for the Bills on that fumble. The defense has done its part in those games, with nine takeaways. Example one time against the Lions he scrambled out of the pocket had plenty of room to run for the first down and he looked behind him to see if a flag was thrown for holding. Vince Verhei: And that's after air-mailing a wide-open receiver on a crossing route that would have moved the sticks on second down. By the end of the game, it was a Folgers commercial: we've secretly replaced Josh Allen's brain with Kirk Cousins, let's see if anyone notices. Colts still lead 10-7 late in the first half. . The Dolphins also blew the chance to draft Matt Ryan. : #LVvsDEN on FOX Every team is still mathematically alive for the playoffs, and only the Bears have been eliminated from any seed. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? The Browns have not scored a single offensive point. Gonna be tough for Green Bay to pick themselves up after that. So now its second-and-25, but the Broncos arent ready, and have to call timeout. IDK. Scott Spratt: It could continue though, Vince, since the Bucs are stuck playing Aaron Stinnie at right guard with Alex Cappa out with a fractured ankle. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews), Washington Commanders (-3) @ Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns (+7.5) v. Buffalo Bills in Detroit, Los Angeles Rams (+3) @ New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets (+3.5) @ New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ Minnesota Vikings, Cincinnati Bengals (-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers. He's 16-for-23 for 123 yards, as "throw the ball somewhere near DeAndre Hopkins" is a pretty good strategy. This has been a point of discussion on this website. It's a great time to be watching multiple games at once, as we try to make sense of everything and figure out just who is for real. Hell, the Eagles got just enough against him with a strong front four and essentially nothing else from their defense, in part of because Brady's DC was Matt Patricia. And yes, I'd argue that King's hold was longer than Murphy-Bunting's. The WCG Podcast Channel is available anywhere you get your Podcasts, including platforms such as Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Audacy, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Podbean, Audible, TuneIn, and. First down in Seattle territory, four and a half minutes to go. The Dolphins are looking for their fourth straight win. I never had much of a problem with Sapp or Gruden (although I really liked Dungy and wished he could have won a ring with that team), I found them entertaining. Davante Adams' first-half drop on that back-shoulder that Troy Aikman called looms large. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. So if you took the field in the conference, you are trailing 10-9. Unfortunately, no defense has all three this year, including Tampa, In reply to You need three things by theslothook. In reply to You can't expect referees to by JS. Dak Prescott lines up in shotgun with CeeDee Lamb in the backfield next to him. "It's odd to say, but on paper, TB's offense is probably more talented than KC's. Not quite over yet, but Rodgers and company need to get things figured out right now. This lifelong Flatbush resident became a Lions fan when 8 year old me (the 1950's Roy, Gene and Hoppyfan) learned they draftedHoward "Hopalong" Cassady out of Ohio State, and a Jets fan when the Titans of NY came into existence in 1960so yesterday's NFCCG featured my two most-loathed quarterbacksof all timeluckily, one had to lose, and I can root against the other in two weeks As a Bears fan (like Eddo), I am supposed to root for whoever the Packers are playing, even if it's the Army of Satan, but I enjoy watching Rodgers play so much (and enjoyed watching Favre) that I usually end up pulling for GB. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index1dc8.html?p=548#comment-117293, In reply to So to recap methodology: The kickoff after the Jefferson touchdown turns into a foot face, with Duke Johnson taking it into Vikings territory. Cam Jordan's streak of 186 consecutive games without missing a game due to injury is coming to an end with an eye injury. Snap goes to Lamb, who hands off to Prescott going to the left, but Prescott gives it to Tony Pollard on a jet sweep going back to the right for a gain of 6. James Conner scores the touchdown for the knockout at 24-10. To make up for the loss of a game, I present to you Buffalo rookies having no idea what a snow brush is. In reply to The reply to your own by Joey-Harringto. : #WASvsNYG on FOX What Is an Audible in Football? Then they BOTH jump to the right so Lamb is at QB and wait a second to get set. The Bears would go to 3-8, the Vikings to 9-1, and even if theydidend up meeting in the middle at 9-8, the Vikings' 7-5 conference record would beat the Bears' 5-7 record. We talk a little about our favorite time of year then Derreck talks about his . Or, as Mike would put it Mike Tanier:Geno is a Fluke 3, Brady is Washed 2. They run back a kick-off for a TD. Credit to Prescott, who shakes off those picks and drives the Cowboys right back down the field. Oh, Dak. The Bills are forced to punt after Josh Allen sprints backwards for 20 yards before taking a sack -- but the ball bounces in and out of Mecole Hardman's hands. Here are the 103 remaining scenarios where the Vikings can LOSE the NFC North. Amazing they both won titles so close together. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/v9GIqhdjpD pic.twitter.com/F2OhH7jpsK. The Jets' furious comeback looks like it's going to come up short -- Braxton Berrios had the ball in the end zone on fourth down, but couldn't haul it in. What on earth One of the most amazing finishes I've ever seen in Vikings-Bills. @justnfields @Equanimeous, : #GBvsCHI on FOX : NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/cHuzDq5flQ pic.twitter.com/03WGHIvFVd. And then he had a fumble on a reception that Green Bay was fortunate to recover. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/0gauSA7hsv pic.twitter.com/7RbfI8rtjC. Vegas responded with its best drive of the day, going 79 yards in 12 plays for a touchdown. Heinicke to Dotson! Your last sentence is the most important IMO. You have to admit, the 6-6 defense works really well. And yet, DVOA still has them 22nd, at -9.2%, making them by far -- by far! In reply to Davante Adams with the by Raiderfan. Detroit marches right down the field from the second-half kickoff, scores again, and it's 30-6. And if TB wins, the Brady path would be to stop Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes at a chance of a second Super Bowl victory. From there, it's easy enough for the Giants to find the end zone, with Isaiah Hodgins coming down with the score. If there was ever a week to watch RedZonewell, it'd be Week 18 with the playoff races finishing. The big play was the 26-yard pass to Hodgins on third-and-7, which sets up Saquon Barkley scoring a few plays later. Depth in the NFL is important and you do not have enough replacements so that many of your regular rotation players are playing in garbage time. Simple outs, rollouts, curls Give Allen some layups until he calms down. Lost among the defensive holding not being called was also the offensive holding not called. and were the Giants right or wrong to go for it. Packers have a very strange front office structure. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/uRjde5F169 pic.twitter.com/XLbJM12l2b. Really?! That just adds to the intrigue of what has been a very confusing season to this point. Denver keeps going under. In reply to Brady's stats are just by IlluminatusUIUC. Other than obviously these Buccaneers, I don't know if any of the other NFC teams the Packers have lost to have been built just for one year, or with an extreme short-term mindset. : #NYJvsMIN on CBS Green Bay kicked theirs with 2:09 left. More than just at QB, there were a number of different personnel in this game. But, hey, new playcaller, new you, right? The Chiefs ended up kicking a 45-yard field goal on fourth-and-3 on that drive; they probably would have gone for it rather than try a 60-yarder. What's changed are the sets of plays that they *use* to manipulate the defense. So Mahomes is already behind the eight-ball on that count. Officially, Ryan gets a completion for 1 yard; Campbell gets a reception for 1 yard, one fumble, and one recovery. The Commanders say that this time, he'll make his return for sure, 100% done deal, after the bye week. There was a sideline shouting match between Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker, but things seem to have been smoothed out. Yeah, we're not following this to completion; we're just filling time while we're waiting for the Cincinnati game to go final. First NFL TD pass for the rookie @brockpurdy13! They didn't even have a great line. In reply to Wow, the end of Vikes-Bills by Joey-Harringto. The Bengals don't win the NFC North last year if they don't beat the Chiefs in Week 17. Where have you gone, Allen Robinson, an offense turns it's lonely eyes to you. If you are saying Brady is just a Game Manager and his sole benefit to Tampais not throwing picks .. 7-0, Broncos. I think it was a rollout with a passing option, but the first down was so open he never considered throwing . The Titans haven't allowed more than 20 points in agamesince Week 3. My definition of a perfect Sunday: Bonus points (better than perfect?) Regardless, Jacobs is stuffed for no gain, but Daniel Carlson bails them out with a 52-yard field goal to tie the game 10-10. As for the Cardinals? On Kansas City's first drive of the second half, there was another one of those "Is this a good challenge?" I understand letting them play, but calling a game deciding penalty when there was an obvious penalty by the other team is pretty poor form. after every win or off-season move) and owner have driven me crazy for 20 years. Mahomes in particular erases some errors such as poor time outs etc. You can not judge a player just on championships. In reply to That's your problem not mine by Bob Smith, https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index1dc8.html?p=548. 2) Brady has quietly(or not so quietly) been kind of bad these last two games. Brady can be the goat and the luckiest qb of all time. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/3GGO7Ve30A pic.twitter.com/H2xLp1MbrX. Not counting Kansas City's end-of-half knee, the Bills had six drives, the Chiefs only had four. Plus Mahomes is a freaking 4th year starter, and Reid's practically got a phone book of plays for him at this point, and he seems to just be like "yeah, sure, what else can we do? He's five-for-five for 65 yards, hitting five different receivers in the process, and he just ran the ball in for a score to take the lead. The 3-3 game in New England might be good defense, but this one has been ugly as all getout. Steelers still lead 19-13. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/IaVHvq433O pic.twitter.com/LVyxvJmC3D. The third (and final) of the enticing early window games has the Giants hosting the Lions, which does tell you something about this slate as a whole. But on third-and-5, they come out in an offset I and hand off to Josh Jacobs. And Jones has now left the game. I feel like it should be okay to say that what makes Brady exceptional isn't just his talent but his circumstances as well. So Green Bay kicks the field goal to make it 14-10. : #MINvsBUF on FOX Aaron Schatz: First play after the fumble, play-action, nobody covers Cameron Brate, easy touchdown. Pete Carroll looked like he was setting up for a game-tying field goal, but a big strike from Geno to Marquise Goodwin set up a first and goal and perhaps changed the calculus. Juwan Johnson hauls in the touchdown, and the Saints tie it at 10 at the half. Looks totally flustered, taking bad sacks and missing throws, with a bunch of passes that could have been intercepted. Swift for 6! : #DENvsTEN on CBS Chicago, IL. Something else to keep an eye on is if Fields can become even an average passer. Vince Verhei:More tomfoolery in Denver. In reply to well, it's not exact, but it by Moridin. but it shows there is a way to gameplan against him if you have a strong front four. And remember, this team was supposed to have Kareem Hunt in the backfield, too. Their third D/ST TD of the day, : #CLEvsHOU on CBS Chiefs rolled through the Bills when they had the ball. In reply to Eventually DVOA has to by mehnsrea. I would also add - the way this season played out is an indictment against the Packers front office. Coralskipper, via the FO Discord:It feels like Purdy is getting the "there's no game film on you, so you're going to overperform until there is" boost right now, A little bit of that, and a little bit of "we're going to blitz eight, and dare you to make a play. So far, the Jets have gone interception, field goal, punt, punt, and they haven't been able to get anything going on a consistent basis. And Wilson can still eat blitzes alive, immediately finding one-on-one matches and putting the ball where only his receiver can get it. Even the generally more anti-analytics people I've seen haven't tried to defend that decision, and the most analytics-friendly defense is "that decision probably wasn't as bad as you thought, which isn't to say it was correct.". Tanier's description of "Brady Fatigue" in yesterday's recap is very well-phrased, I think. Aaron Schatz: Honestly, they aren't going quick ENOUGH given that they're only 50-50 to get the two-point conversion if they score a touchdown. Packers-Cowboys is, of course, the first return trip for Mike McCarthy in Green Bay. Brown is having himself aday. Iwasgoing to write about the college football playoffs here, as the ESPN selection show replaced their normal pregame show. Jamaal Williams thoroughly planned to let it bounce through the end zone, but he was so surprised by the action, he caught it off the bounce and advanced it barely past the 10-yard line. This is exactly what makes it reminiscent of arguing politics with your drunk uncle at Thanksgiving. This game has seen Cleveland do zip on offense, and a field goal and safety have kept Houston alive. In reply to Don't worry, you're not by Eddo. I think there is specifically a rule against that one now, but you get one play attempt at the Harbaugh Hold. Jamaal Williams powers it in and the extra point gives the Lions the lead@Lions | @jswaggdaddy, : #DETvsCHI on FOX @Wpg_BlueBombers out in front!#GreyCup pic.twitter.com/vNXKlHM3pr. It's hard to think he'd have even played past his rookie contract if he'd been drafted by any other team, with maybe the exception of the eagles. That keeps the Rams' drive alive, and Cam Akers punches it in a few plays later. I don't think Evans couldn't have caught it, but he had to stretch to even get his fingertips on it. But while NE seemed to get great defensive play and cut and paste offensive playmakers - it seems KC puts money into offensive weapons a few defensive stars and has done a good job with a budget secondary and offensive line. : #JAXvsKC on CBS touchdown, all in the last 40 seconds of the second quarter. There are a couple other scenarios of note today, as well: Philadelphiacan clinch aplayoff berthwith a win OR losses by the 49ers, Giants and Seahawks. That Justin Jefferson catch is an all timer. It doesnt matter much though. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/KRUwj1CkWe pic.twitter.com/CrMDnKHfUL. Ryan Succop hits the 46-yard field goal and now we're at 31-23 and we can have some debates about whether the Packers should have gone for two after their last touchdown. That muff seriously swung the balance in this one. He hits Greg Dulcich (the only good thing to happen to the Broncos offense today or all season) for 30 yards to get across midfield, but then badly overthrows Montrell Washington inside the 20, and the Broncos punt. In reply to I would also add - the way by theslothook. Chargers are now within one touchdown as this wild afternoon slate draws to a conclusion. That was the second play from scrimmage, with Kendall Fuller jumping all over Mills' pass and bringing it to the house. Davante Adams can't get away from Carlton Davis on second-and-goal, but he slants in and gets the pass on third-and-goal for the touchdown. Scott Spratt: If there was any question about whether McDermott went for the field goal at the end of the first half because of the lack of time in case they didn't convert, that question is answered. The touchdown itself comes on a bit of a dangerous throw, as Dalton Schultz catches the balloutsidethe end zone with no time outs left, but he's able to get the ball across the line to tie this game at 14 at the half. Allen starting likely improves the quality of the game, if not the competitiveness or intrigue levels. (Yes, thats more yardage than the drive itself L.A. moved backwards on penalties a few times.). And don't sleep on the Falcons and Steelers! The second was certifiable. Their first drive this game ended up in a field goal, and the Bengals forced them to a third down on theirnexttrip to the red zone. Two targets, both bouncing squarely off his hands. Evans burns King (naturally) for what should have been a big gain, but Brady's pass is slightly underthrown and Evans can't react and ends up dropping the ball. I think it's safe to say Josh Allen is fine. That was a big 4th-and-3 conversion, and led to a James Conner touchdown a few plays later. \and they have Patricia and Judge calling plays. But from a sartorial perspective, this might well be the game of the week. Both teams still have a negative DVOA on the season, but the Commanders have been in the positives since replacing Carson Wentz with Taylor Heinicke in Week 7; they're at 8.1% and rising. More relevantly, the league received three million ticket requests to see this one, and they estimate they have millions more fans in Germany than they do in the UK, despite playing in the UK for over a decade now. Maddox had an awful game and here comes Big Ben with two garbage time TD's in the 4th quarter. This is the sort of thing teams usually iron out in the first week or two, but I think the Colts receivers need to shorten their routes by about two feet. : #HOUvsNYG on CBS With the Vikings currently down 10 to the Cowboys, theres a good chance this streak will grow to eight today. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/HIkZtH0OMm pic.twitter.com/AG0LUlxvjb. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/69z8ixgEIW pic.twitter.com/FHPOJ3zbEy. Touchdown, Chiefs; it's 24-17. His consideration of luck also assumes a fair coin -- a matter very much in doubt. The Panthers need any two of the Giants, Eagles or Vikings to win. It's going to be a punt to the Commanders, needing just a field goal to win Haven't even had time to post the late game storylines, and the Dolphins have already found the endzone. Vince Verhei:PITs first two drives: 28 plays, 105 yards, two field goals. Sure, Tampa still has a losing record, but Tom Brady led that vintage comeback drive last week! Bryan Knowles: But the Bucs don't get a chance to attempt third-down conversion No. : #PHIvsIND on CBS 41 seconds left for Josh Allen and the Bills; they need a field goal to tie. I could be made to look dumb for this but I think the 2019 SF defense was across the board better than this Tampa unit. Huge swing after huge swing in this one. Vince Verhei:We should add that Chandler Jones got his third sack in the second quarter, though the Chargers picked up a first down afterwards and went on to kick a field goal. Instead, the Bucs just scored 14. Two point conversion fails, so it's just 19-14 Colts. Another TD for the NFL's leading receiver @Cheetah, : #CLEvsMIA on CBS Vince Verhei:Tip drill pick for Arizona and the Cards are going to win. Imagine that, a Falcons tight end scoring a touchdown. Colts are nearly doubling the Raiders in first downs (13 to 7) and total yardage (206 to 122). Rams lead 7-3 on Tutu Atwells 62-yard long-bomb touchdown catch; their other 11 snaps have produced 25 yards and one first down. At best. ", In reply to I think the other thing with by Pat. Not over yet, but the Giants need to wake up right here, right now. With a 24-10 lead halfway through the fourth quarter, this one is looking pretty comfortable for Arizona. In reply to Pennington was great in 2008 by Eddo. Btw, both statements can be true at the same time Brady. Or the start of something big? NoAFCEast team ever found an answer at quarterback for two straight decades. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/P31SxnTZpJ pic.twitter.com/Ap35YYGvze. Travis Etienne is back! And the Texans continue to play a contractually-obligated game of football, this time against the well-rested Giants. The Bills have made this drive look easy. On the other hand, massive weather events tends to add an element of randomness to games that generally favors the underdogs; conditions that won't be there indoors in Detroit. The refs are desperately trying to give the Bills another home call. In both scenarios Tampa did a better job of leveraging the officiating approach. In reply to I oftenfind its the by Dave Bernreuther. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/v9GIqhdjpD pic.twitter.com/nv7hVMWDNC, Cale Clinton:Jamaal Williams officially has more TDs this season (14) than he has in his previous five seasons in the NFL (13). Whoops! I'd agree that it's unusual in football to 'flip the switch' (yet very common in NBA), but this will be two straight seasons where, by your numbers with Mahomes in the game, Chiefs' offense is actually better in the postseason than it ever was in the regular season (your offensive dvoa charts from last season's SB preview had their best 2 games as their 2 playoff games, to that point). This is all over but the crying. "KC's OL has been fairly average most of this season, and we can look back to last Super Bowl where the OL was overwhelmed much of the game.". Aaron Schatz: From Seth Walder: Packers pass block win rate is 57% today. Mahomes already has two. Kirk (his only good WR) has been bracketed, Marvin Jones can't get open, and Zay Jones has already dropped three dimes that hit him in the hands. Audibles at the Line takes on the big NFL games of Week 13. Opening drive TD for @thereal_cam3 and the @RamsNFL , : #SEAvsLAR on FOX TB's scheme seems to utilize their talent. He has completed five passes for only 17 yards and no first downs. Reminds me of a college game with that "anything can happen" vibe on any play. After the Cowboys touchdown, the Packers have averyquick three and out, and the Cowboys just slice and dice them back up the field. Obviously they should have had someone else for him to sit behind for a while, but some insane person thought that was Pryor. Saturday goes with the veteran and takes an early lead Vince Verhei:Matt Ryan (?!?!) But both the Browns and Bills have sabotaged their own offenses against them, to a certain extent. receivers. I can get behind that. Tom Gower: Congrats to 345 Park Avenue. And Seattle hasn't had nearly as much success since then in being aggressive to add veteran players. Winnipeg is heavily favoured, which is exactly the sort of Grey Cup game Toronto has made a habit of winning. Chicago, IL. Oh my Vince Verhei:OH NO! Either just give us Georgia v. Michigan, or expand out already. I didn't realize it's that extreme, but it seems clear they didn't believe (IMO, correctly) that they could match Dallas score-for-score and so are trying to win with ball control + a few big plays. This is not a knock on Brady.". Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. It's admittedly an arbitrary measure, but I'd say the Bucs have "higher average talent" across the skill positions, but the parts of the Chiefs that are really good (Mahomes, Kelce, Hill), are INSANELY good. My whole rationale against it was that, in Whites three game sample size from 2021, we saw the ball almost completely taken out of Whites hands in Game 2 and saw his game solved by the Bills in Game 3. And their combined 31.1 points per game is the second-lowest of the 21st century and the seventh-lowest since the 1978 rules changes. CFP Trophy. The list of most-fortunate QBs in pro football history probably includes Brady, Graham, and Montana, and probably Starr. Chicago is so surprised by their own big play that they have to call their second timeout of the half, which is bad, but then David Montgomery takes the ball off tackle and crashes through defenders into the end zone, which is good. Especially since this gamelike the KC/BUF game.was decided by an alien All-Universe QB throwing a game-losing pick. Not quite game over, but the Bears would be in desperation mode if theydoget the ball back, which is far from a guarantee. Aaron Schatz: Buffalo is back to its strategy from the first game, lots of zones with two safeties back to prevent the big play by Kansas City. When in doubt, hand the ball to Jonathan Taylor! I mean, it was still a massive Chiefs gain, but still amazing. Eh. Right now they are 3 point dogs I believe. The Browns, meanwhile, continue to stumble along with a top-five offense and a bottom-ten defense, as the clock continues to tick down on Jacoby Brissett's tenure as starting quarterback. New Audibles with the FO staff reaction to: #Patriots clobber the #Browns The #Chiefs offense appears to be back! Burrow to Higgins! In reply to Colts/Eagles postmortem: by Paul R. It feels like they restarted the season when Saturday took over and they immediately started actually playing their best players and playing somewhat sane football. Here's a fun hypothetical: 1st and 10 at Colts 1-yard line. If on the other hand you realize that football is played by more than just the trigger man, suddenly other explanations make a lot more sense than this nebulous hard to define term that no one can agree on. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/HIkZtH0OMm pic.twitter.com/GMKVoEYNrU. @1kalwaysopen_, : #TENvsPHI on FOX . Mahomes has 15 completions to nine different players, with three touchdown passes already. The Colts have a 13-7 halftime lead. Football Outsiders Almanac 2022: The Essential Guide to the 2022 NFL and College Football Seasons Paperback - July 12, 2022 by Aaron Schatz (Author), J.P. Acosta (Author), Cale Clinton (Author), 68 ratings See all formats and editions Paperback $29.99 7 Used from $17.83 1 New from $29.99 He was Jameis Winston last night, which is not all bad but kind of a lot bad. So its first-and-20 instead of second-and-17. On the other hand, the Bucs pressure has gotten to Aaron Rodgers plenty today, and the Bucs just sacked Rodgers on third-and-5 when three different Bucs pass-rushers beat the Packers blockers. That looked like something Pop Warner would have drawn up a hundred years ago. : Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/Vz8D2Cm19r pic.twitter.com/XPRarHYloF. Still think an explosive play by the Colts to set up a game-winning field goal is asignificantpossibility, so that whole 1 point loss could easily be a 2 point victory at this point. But for so many people, it is. Carl Yedor: So this is a somewhat weird challenge by Matt LaFleur here. 66 yards! John Wolford has been trying to give it a go, but he's been pretty beat up today. So, go Argos! And this week, it cost Buffalo the game. They said it was an interception. It's not a crazy argument. Vince Verhei:Giants receiver Isaiah Hodgins fumbles and the Lions recover. Championship games ('85 and '92). The Patriots really did dominate the game. That means we aren't going to cover every game, or every important play. They had five other offensive possessions, all starting backed up, and once Sean McDermott made the decision to accept a two-score halftime deficit, they scored six points on those five possessions. Justin Fields throws a pick, and three plays later, Christian Walker did THIS. No Brady, no magic. And yet, this run is strange. In reply to Choker AND clutch artist by Bob Smith. Well, no matter -- slowly but surely, Minnesota matriculated the ball down the field and found the end zone. I'm pretty damn sure that's not a fumble, but there's no clear shot of the ball when his elbow hit the ground, so it's probably going to stand as called. The Bucs should with the OL/DL matchup on that side. The most star-studded week of the NFL schedule has amazing matchups every which way you turn. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. 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